2013-12-15

Neracionalus Energingumas

Irrational Exuberance

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Irrational Exuberance is a March 2000 book written by Nobel Prize-winning Yale University professor Robert Shiller, named after Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" quote.


Published at the height of the dot-com boom, it put forth several arguments demonstrating how the stock markets were overvalued at the time. The stock market collapse of 2000 happened the exact month of the book's publication.

The second edition of Irrational Exuberance published in 2005 is updated to cover the housing bubble, especially in the United States.
 
Shiller writes that the real estate bubble may soon burst, and he supports his claim by showing that median home prices are now six to nine times greater than median income in some areas of the country. He also shows that home prices, when adjusted for inflation, have produced very modest returns of less than 1% per year. Housing prices peaked in 2006 and the housing bubble burst in 2007 and 2008, an event partially responsible for the Worldwide recession of 2008-2009.


Greenspan's comment was made on December 5, 1996 (emphasis added in excerpt):
Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?

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